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IMF's EFF program assumes acceleration of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2024 to 3.2%, in 2025 to 6.5%
KYIV. April 1 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from a 3% decline to a 1% growth, followed by a growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.
According to the detailed macro forecast released by the IMF after the approval of the four-year EFF program for Ukraine for $15.6 billion as part of the total support package of $115 billion, growth is expected to slow down to 5% and 4% in 2026-2027, respectively.
The fund, which last year refused to give a macro forecast for Ukraine even for the next year, now expects inflation to decline from 26.6% last year to 20% this year, 12.5% in 2024 and 8% in 2025 with achieving the target level of 5% set by the National Bank in 2027.
It is assumed that fiscal deficit (excluding grants), after growing from 26.5% of GDP last year to 28.2% of GDP this year, will decrease to 21.7% of GDP next year, to 12.1% of GDP in 2025, and to 4.6% of GDP in 2027.
According to the program, external financing will be sufficient to cover such a deficit and a negative current account balance, while Ukraine’s forex reserves will grow from $28.5 billion to $29.6 billion this year, to $32.4 billion next year, in 2025 – to $35.6 billion, and in 2027 – to $44.6 billion.
Finally, Ukraine’s gross public debt, after growing from 50.4% of GDP to 81.7% of GDP last year, to 98.3% of GDP in 2023 and to 105% of GDP in 2024, will begin to decline in 2025 to 104.1% of GDP and will drop to 100.2% of GDP in 2027, according to the materials of the IMF.
