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Fighting to intensify in spring, but Russia’s offensive from Belarus unlikely – ISW
KYIV. Jan 14 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Senior Ukrainian officials predict that in the spring of 2023, Ukrainian and Russian operations are likely to intensify, but the Russian offensive from the territory of Belarus remains unlikely, according to a report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for January 13.
“ISW has still not observed any indicators that Ukrainian forces intend to halt currently ongoing counteroffensive operations this winter in favor of conducting a major counteroffensive this spring. Ukrainian forces may instead use ongoing counteroffensive operations to set conditions for a potential larger counteroffensive operation this spring,” the report says.
At the same time, it is noted that the forecast of Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov about the intensification of Russian operations in the spring of 2023 partially supports the ISW assessment that Russian forces are probably preparing for the planned decisive military operation in 2023. Reznikov also said that Russian forces "will need a lot of time" to prepare an offensive from Belarus and that the Russian military currently "does not have the resources" to do so.
ISW still believes that the most dangerous scenario – the resumption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus – remains unlikely and that Belarusian forces are unlikely to join the fighting in Ukraine.
According to analysts, on Friday, Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk region, while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counter-offensive operations in Kreminna area. Also on Friday, Russian troops continued offensive operations in the area of Soledar, Bakhmut and Avdiyivka, Donetsk region.
“Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to divert Russian resources away from the frontline to rear areas in occupied territories,” the report reads.
