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Zelenskyy's statements about Bakhmut's defense strategy don’t indicate its change – ISW
KYIV. Feb 21 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The statement of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut in Donetsk region, but “not at any cost” does not indicate a change in Kiev’s strategy, according to a report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for February 20.
The report notes that these words may be a response to statements by unnamed representatives of the U.S. Department of Defense about the pace and prospects of the war. “The United States is concerned about Ukraine’s ability to defend Bakhmut while also pursuing counteroffensive operations. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut is a strategically sound effort to pin Russian forces in a discrete area of the front and attrit them, and Zelenskyy likely tempered his administration’s stance on Bakhmut to make a limited rhetorical concession to U.S. officials. It has long been clear that Ukraine would not continue to defend Bakhmut at the risk of seeing large numbers of Ukrainian troops encircled in the city, so Zelenskyy’s comment is not likely a real change in Kyiv’s strategy,” the report reads.
According to ISW, on Monday, Russian occupation forces continued offensive operations in the area of Bakhmut, as well as in the area of Avdiyivka-Donetsk and in the west of Donetsk region. Also, the invaders continued their offensive on the Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk region.
“Russia has all combat-ready units on the line of contact In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and partly in Zaporizhia region, reaffirming the assessment that Russia does not have a large uncommitted combat ready reserves that can be deployed and change the course of operations. These Ukrainian statements are consistent with ISW’s assessment that Ukraine has the capacity to regain the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely Western backing,” the report reads.
Analysts note that the decision of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the formal integration of fighters from certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation indicates a misunderstanding of the problems of integration of irregular formations into professional armed forces, especially during intense hostilities. “Such untimely restructuring of the command structure may reduce cohesion within the proxy units and between them and Russian forces.,” the ISW says.
It is also reported that the Russian military command has likely cut off Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s independent access to artillery shells and heavy weaponry as part of the effort to professionalize Russian conventional forces. The ISW also says that the Russian MoD has also reportedly cut off Prigozhin’s ability to recruit prisoners and train at select training grounds belonging to the Russian Armed Forces.
Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian forces may have difficulty repairing the air defense systems deployed in Ukraine, ISW informs.