Putin’s reluctance to take risks could directly indicate that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO – ISW

KYIV. Feb 6 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Putin’s reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decisions regarding Ukraine since his initial flawed invasion on February 24, 2022, indicate a likely disconnect between his maximalist objectives and his willingness to take the likely high-risk decisions necessary to achieve them,” the report reads.

It notes that Putin likely operated under the flawed assumption that Russian forces could force Kyiv to capitulate without any significant military sacrifices and saw Russia’s invasion as a limited and acceptable risk.

“Captured Russian military plans, for example, revealed that the Kremlin expected Russian forces to capture Kyiv in days, Russian intelligence services reportedly expected the Ukrainian military to collapse, and Kremlin propagandists preemptively published a prewritten article extolling Russia’s ‘victory’ on February 26, 2022,” the analysts stress.

They are convinced that Putin continued to select comparatively less risky options even when faced with spiraling military failures in fall 2022. Thus, Putin only began to accept domestically unpopular—and potentially risky—policies such as the declaration of partial mobilization or the expansion of martial law far after the “dire situation” on the front lines.

In addition the Institute says that the Russian forces built a fortified base on the Arabat Spit in northeastern Crimea between October 18, 2022, and January 21, 2023.

As for the situation on the battlefield, analysts report that the Russian occupiers are trying to conduct offensive operations in the area of Bakhmut and are preparing for an offensive operation in Luhansk region.