Posted On


OPEC retains growth estimate for oil supplies from non-OPEC countries in 2023, raises estimate for Russia by 150,000 bpd to 10.28 million bpd

KYIV. March 14 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The supply of liquid hydrocarbons from non-OPEC countries increased by 1.9 million bpd to an average of 65.8 million bpd in 2022, virtually unchanged compared to the previous month’s estimate, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report posted on its website.

Total U.S. production of liquid hydrocarbons fell by 900,000 bpd in December because of the severe winter storm, Elliot, though it rose by 200,000 bpd to an average of 19.1 million bpd in 2022.

OPEC has revised its supply estimates slightly to 63.9 million bpd in 2021 and to 65.76 million bpd in 2022, explaining the revision because of adjusting estimates for biofuel production.

Non-OPEC countries are forecast to boost production of liquid hydrocarbons by 1.4 million bpd to an average of 67.2 million bpd in 2023, which is 20,000 bpd above the previous estimate.

OPEC notes that Russia’s output of hydrocarbons has been higher than expected in the Q1 2023; therefore, the organization’s analysts now project that the country’s supply of liquid hydrocarbons should decrease from 11.03 million bpd in 2022 to 10.28 million bpd in 2023, and not to 10.13 million bpd in 2023, as the organization had previously forecast.

According to OPEC estimates, Russia produced 11.2 million bpd of liquid hydrocarbons in January, at 9.8 million bpd of oil and 1.4 million bpd of condensate, which was 36,000 bpd lower month-on-month.

Preliminarily, Russia’s oil production remained stable at 9.8 million bpd in February, at the same level as in January, the organization noted.

OPEC’s analysts expect the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Kazakhstan to be the main drivers of growth for 2023, while projecting Russian oil production to decline. Nevertheless, there are significant uncertainties related to the effect of current geopolitical events in Eastern Europe, as well as the state of the U.S. shale industry, OPEC said.