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Month of hard lockdown across Ukraine will lead to extra 0.3% p.p. loss of annual GDP – NBU
KYIV. Oct 29 (Interfax-Ukraine) – One month of hard lockdown across Ukraine will result in an additional 0.3% p.p. GDP losses in 2021, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said in its October inflation report.
The introduction for one month of a hard lockdown throughout the country to combat the surge in the incidence [ of COVID-19] will lead to an additional 0.3% p.p. loss of GDP this year, the report says.
At the same time, the NBU noted that the basic scenario of the macro forecast assumes the quarantine of "red zones" in certain regions.
The central bank admits the possibility of an unfavorable scenario.
"In the event of a hard lockdown, the need for additional budgetary spending will increase. At the same time, the negative impact will more affect supply than demand, which may increase the impact of pro-inflationary pressure," the National Bank said.
