Ministry of Economy estimates decline in Ukraine's GDP in Sept at 35%, in Jan-Sept at 30%

KYIV. Oct 10 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The fall in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in September, as in August, was within 35% [±2%].

This assessment was given by the Ministry of Economy using indirect calculation methods and modeling tools based on the behavioral indicators of economic entities.

"In general, according to the results of the first three quarters of 2022, the fall in GDP in Ukraine is estimated at 30%," the ministry said on its website.

Among the positive economic factors, it indicated an improvement in the dynamics of transportation, both due to the growth in exports of foodstuffs by sea, and through an increase in the transport of goods by rail.

In particular, thanks to the implementation of the grain initiative, 5.5 million tonnes of foodstuffs were exported through the ports of Big Odesa in August-September, and in September, compared to August, the number of exported products more than doubled, the number of ships leaving the ports almost tripled.

As a result, last month, Ukrainian exports in monetary terms rose by more than 23% compared to August this year, a record since the start of a full-scale Russian invasion.

Also, according to operational data, in September Ukrzaliznytsia transported 11.7 million tonnes of cargo, which is 8.4% more than in August 2022 and 41% more than in March, respectively.

"Repairs and construction of infrastructure facilities and border roads and customs crossings damaged due to hostilities, as well as work to restore the functioning of roads, are being continued, and safe supply chains are being created in the de-occupied territories," the Ministry of Economy said.

According to its data, in September, capital expenditures of the state budget grew by 33.2% compared to August 2022.

In addition, fuel prices stabilized last month due to the establishment of logistics chains for the supply of petroleum products and the operational diversification of suppliers, which generally balanced the domestic market and helped reduce inflationary pressure on the economy against the backdrop of falling external prices, especially for energy.

There is also an improvement in business expectations regarding the prospects for their economic activity, although they are still pessimistic (46.1 in September against 44.1 in August), the ministry said.

Among the negative factors that influenced the economy, the Ministry of Economy singled out the weather and the actions of the occupiers. Due to prolonged rainy weather in some regions, the pace of grain harvesting slowed down in September, which negatively affected the volume of production. As of September 29, 26.1 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops were harvested, while on August 25 it was 25.3 million tonnes.

In addition, the unstable operation and periodic disconnections of the occupied Zaporizhia NPP from the power system of Ukraine forced the redistribution of the load between other participants in the system, which put significant pressure on the entire Ukrainian power system, the ministry added.