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It’s highly unlikely that Russian forces planning to relaunch new offensive on northern Ukraine from direction of Belarus – ISW

KYIV. Jan 24 (Interfax-Ukraine) – It is unlikely that the Russian Federation plans to resume a new offensive in the north of Ukraine from Belarus, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for January 23.

“ISW also maintains that it is highly unlikely that Russian forces are planning to relaunch a new offensive on northern Ukraine from the direction of Belarus,” the message reads.

The Institute reiterates assessments of Ukrainian intelligence that “also reiterated that Russian forces are unlikely to launch an attack from Belarus or in southern Ukraine.” In particular, the GUR has observed indicators that Russian troops are regrouping in preparation for a “big offensive” in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort (of either offensive or defensive nature) in Luhansk region and observed a redeployment of conventional forces such as Airborne (VDV) elements to the Svatove-Kreminna axis after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson region.

The ISW also underscore the continued need for Western partner support to ensure that Ukraine does not lose the initiative to a renewed Russian offensive operation.