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ISW: Specter of limitless Russian manpower is a myth
KYIV. Feb 27 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The specter of limitless Russian manpower is a myth, and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has already been forced to make difficult and suboptimal choices to offset the terrible losses his war has inflicted on the Russian military on the battlefield, and the costs to Putin and Russia will begin to mount rapidly this year, the Institute for the Study of War said in its report on February 26.
“He will face similarly difficult choices in 2023 if he persists in his determination to use military force to impose his will on Ukraine and the West. Russia can mobilize more manpower, and Putin will likely do so rather than give up. But the costs to Putin and Russia of the measures he will likely need to take at this point will begin to mount rapidly,” it said.
According to the document, Ukraine’s sweeping counteroffensive in Kharkiv region between September 6 and September 11 likely shocked Putin into realizing that he needed to order an involuntary reserve call-up.
The analysts also said that the Russian military command likely began to suffer significant manpower shortages in May 2022 and for this reason they had to launch the involuntary reserve call-up.
Putin likely recognized that the involuntary reserve call-up could not close the gap between Russian force requirements and available manpower in a timely fashion, and so gave the Wagner Group room to expand its recruitment of prisoners and its operations on the frontline until the mobilized personnel could arrive en masse, the ISW said.
Putin’s clear efforts to prepare the Russian people for a protracted and painful war suggest that he has realized that only the Russian Defense Ministry can actually sustain the large mechanized forces he needs “to have any hope of achieving his ambitions in Ukraine.”
“Putin has apparently still hesitated to order the additional reserve call-up that Russian officials were reportedly preparing at the start of 2023. He has not turned back to voluntary recruitment and is unlikely to do so, but he seems to remain nervous about how much sacrifice he can impose on his people,” the ISW said in the report.
As for the situation on the battlefield, the analysts said that the Russian forces continued to conduct unsuccessful operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna, as well as continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.