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IMF estimates short-term fiscal burden from Ukrainians on EU countries at EUR 30-37 bln

(News item issued on Feb 22 has been updated)

KYIV. Feb 23 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has announced the estimates of the short-term fiscal burden from Ukrainian refugees on the EU countries given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) being at EUR 30-37 billion and expects a positive effect in the long term, NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy has said.

“According to IMF estimates, a certain short-term fiscal effect of the burden, first of all, on the EU countries, somewhere at the level of EUR 30-37 billion. The amount is quite significant, but in total about 0.2-0.23% of EU GDP, this is a short-term effect. In the long term, the presence of Ukrainians in the EU markets, both labor and consumer, as a result, according to our calculations and research, I hope, will have a positive effect,” he said during a discussion organized by the Centre for Economic Strategy on Wednesday.

According to him, the presence of Ukrainians in European countries to a certain extent compensated for the risks of a recession, and in some countries, it may even have helped to avoid it.

In addition, the presence of Ukrainians stimulated consumer markets, compensated for the lack of sufficient coverage of the labor potential of those needs that arise in the EU, the regulator notes.

“There is a gradual assimilation of our citizens. Most of them demonstrate absolutely unique abilities in order to build their effective environment everywhere and bring benefits to society. Therefore, the European Central Bank estimates that the labor force participation rate of Ukrainian forced migrants will be from 20% to 55% in the medium term,” Pyshnyy added.

According to the NBU, the labor force in the EU zone increased due to the participation of Ukrainians by 0.2-0.8% in absolute terms, which ranges from 300,000 to 1.3 million people.