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21
February
2023

IEA sees almost 1 bcm increase in gas from Azerbaijan to EU in 2023, higher than country's own estimates

BAKU. Feb 21 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The International Energy Agency predicts an increase in gas supplies from Azerbaijan to EU countries via the TAP, or Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline, part of the Southern Gas Corridor, of almost 1 billion cubic meters in 2023.

“It is expected that in 2023, supplies will increase by less than 1 billion cubic meters,” the IEA “Natural gas supply-demand balance of the European Union in 2023. How to prepare for winter 2023/24” report.

This means that the IEA estimate is much higher than the forecast from Azerbaijani authorities, who expect that this year 11.6 billion cubic meters of gas will be supplied to Europe from the republic. In 2022, Azerbaijan supplied Europe with almost the same amount of gas, 11.4 billion cubic meters.

The State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic, like the country’s authorities, is also more cautious in its forecasts. According to SOCAR estimates, it will be possible to add another 1 billion cubic meters of gas to its Europe exports only within the 2023-2025 period. “Again, the problem here is rather not the country’s production capabilities. The fields in Azerbaijan can produce more gas today. The issue is limits on the throughput of the existing pipeline system,” SOCAR Deputy Vice President for Marketing and Investment Vitaly Beglyarbekov said in an interview with the Azerbaijani CBC TV channel.

The existing infrastructure did not allow for such a rapid increase in gas supplies during 2021, 2022 or 2023, he said. Referring to the planned increase in the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor from 10 billion to 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year, this will not happen before 2027, Beglyarbekov said.

Currently, buyers of Azerbaijani gas in the EU are Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania.