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IEA boosts 2023 oil output forecast for Russia by 300,000 bpd to 10.35 mln bpd

KYIV. March 16 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised upward its forecast for oil production in Russia in 2023, expecting it to reach 10.35 million bpd, according to the agency’s monthly report.

A month earlier, the IEA had forecast the figure at 10.04 million bpd.

“Russian oil supplies have held up surprisingly well since the start of the conflict with Ukraine, as measures have been taken to make it easier to divert oil exports to new markets. Sustained exports lead us to revise Russia’s oil production by 300,000 bpd this year,” the report said.

The new forecast figure is 740,000 bpd lower than the result for 2022.

According to the agency’s estimates, oil production alone in Russia increased by 130,000 bpd in February, up to 9.91 million bpd. At the same time, production including condensate and NGLs increased to 11.37 mln bpd, which is only 30,000 bpd lower than before the conflict in Ukraine.

The IEA expects Russian crude output alone to fall to 9.4 million bpd in March, taking into account the announced reduction of 500,000 bpd.