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GDP dynamics likely to be better than NBU forecast in H1 2023 – NBU dpty governor

KYIV. March 6 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The extreme resilience of the Ukrainian energy sector, achieved thanks to air defense, effective repairs and warmer weather, suggests a more positive development of the economic situation in Ukraine in the first half of the year than the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicted in January this year, NBU Deputy Governor Serhiy Nikolaychuk has said.

“Risks prevail (for the macro forecast) that the situation will be much better. Due to the fact that the energy sector has demonstrated extreme resilience … Most likely, we will have better results in both the first and second quarters of 2023,” he said at a discussion organized by the Centre for Economic Strategy on Monday.

Nikolaychuk added that in December and January, deterioration in economic sentiment was recorded, but it was short-term, and in February these indicators were already recovering.

According to the deputy governor of the National Bank, at the same time, the risks in the military sphere and the risks of the grain corridor functioning remain quite high.

As reported, the NBU predicted in January that the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2023 y-o-y would slow down to 19% from 35% and 30.8%, respectively, in the fourth and third quarters of 2022.