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European temperatures lowering gradually from record levels; Gazprom requests 35.5 mcm for transit via Ukraine
KYIV. Jan 9 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Temperatures in Europe have been lowering gradually from their record levels to start the year, having declined only one degree during January 2-8 against a forecast of decreasing three degrees already this week.
Gazprom’s request for pumping Russian gas through Ukraine has not changed markedly from the previous days and months.
The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, or GTSOU, has accepted a booking from Gazprom today to transport 35.5 million cubic meters of gas through the country, data from GTSOU show.
Capacity was requested only through one of two entry points into Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System, the Sudzha metering station. A request was not accepted through the Sokhranivka metering station.
Prices on the European market have risen following the slide because of the relatively warm spell on the continent. The day-ahead contract for today at the Dutch TTF gas hub in the Netherlands has closed at $722 per 1,000 cubic meters, and the February futures contract was $765 per 1,000 cubic meters.
In Asia, the most expensive winter futures contract for February on the JKM Platts index remains higher at $1,016 per 1,000 cubic meters on the heels of European prices.
Power generation from wind turbines in Europe averaged 24% last week following an average of 31% the previous week of December 26, 2022, to January 1, 2023, according to data from WindEurope.
The Nord Stream pipeline has been fully shut down owing to a number of sanctions-related problems regarding equipment maintenance. At the end of September 2022, two lines of Nord Stream 1 and one line of Nord Stream 2 ruptured near the Danish island of Bornholm.
Current inventory levels in Europe’s underground gas storage (UGS) facilities have declined to 83.18%, which is 16 percentage points above the average for the same date over the past five years, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).
Reserves contracted 0.01 percentage point during the gas day on January 4.
Offtake has exceeded injection for five straight days after European operators succeeded in boosting inventories in UGS facilities from the end of December to the start of January on the back of unseasonably warm weather.
The beginning of offtake season on November 14 this year was the latest since Gas Infrastructure Europe began monitoring in 2011, with the previous latest date coming on November 4, 2013.
However, Gazprom has also warned that, "The load on UGS facilities in Europe will be higher than in previous years owing to the changed logistics and sources of gas supplies to the European market."
European LNG terminals have been operating at 64% capacity since the beginning of January against an average of 67% in December.
The state of gas in UGS facilities in the United States is of increasing importance for the global market, and the country is actively increasing gas exports, primarily to Europe, while production is rising at a slower pace.
The latest reporting week ending December 30, 2022, saw 6.3 billion cubic meters of gas extracted from UGS facilities owing to the sharp drop in temperatures.
The current level of inventories is around 60%, which is already seven percentage points lower than the average for the past five years, according to the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration.
A significant reduction in offtake is expected going forward owing to rising temperatures and restoring production volumes.
The EIA currently expects UGS stocks to drop by 60 billion cubic meters this winter to the average for the last five years. Natural gas volumes in storage facilities should total 40 bcm by the end of March, which would be 8% below the average for five years.