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Economy Ministry develops four macroeconomic scenarios for 2023, from 0.4% decline in GDP to 15.5% growth
KYIV. Aug 26 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine expects a decline in GDP of at least 30-35% in 2022, and for the next year it has developed four macroeconomic scenarios, which, depending on the conditions, give from 0.4% further decline to 15.5% of economic growth, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko has reported.
"In cooperation with the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank of Ukraine, and the expert community, we have formed four possible scenarios – depending on the conditionally probable scenarios for the development of events at the front, the duration of the war, or at least different intensity and geographical coverage, and the speed of recovery processes, taking into account the volume of international donor aid, investment, etc.," she wrote in a Focus column.
Svyrydenko added that a target vision for the development of Ukraine for the next ten years had also been formed, which was set out in Ukraine’s Recovery Plan. It is planned, with the help of partner countries, to increase GDP to $500 billion compared to record $200 billion in pre-war 2021.
According to her, the recovery plan has five important steps: restore businesses, restore the economy to pre-war conditions as quickly as possible, make Ukraine attractive to capital, build logistics routes to deliver products to Europe in 72 hours, and provide access to raw materials for exporting processed products and stimulating processing.
The First Deputy Prime Minister stressed that maintaining the situation today and these recovery plans were impossible without the strong support of foreign partners, their macro-financial assistance.
She also mentioned the zeroing of duties on Ukrainian goods with other countries, a transport visa-free regime from the EU, which would speed up logistics to the west, and the transfer of weapons from partners. These points will help to quickly restore the economy and de-occupy the occupied territories.
It is very important to maintain macroeconomic stability, Svyrydenko said, as Ukraine has to spend large amounts of financial resources to fight.
