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Draft state budget for 2023 based on exchange rate forecast of UAH 37/$1 in late 2022, about UAH 42/$1 on average in 2023 – PM
KYIV. Sept 14 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The average expected hryvnia exchange rate in 2022 is currently UAH 32.3/$1, and is expected to reach UAH 37/$1 by the end of the year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a press conference in Kyiv on Wednesday.
"Of course, given the conditions of emission and inflation, which is observed throughout Europe, in the world and, obviously, in our country, we expect that the weighted average rate for (2023) will be around UAH 42/$1, it will fluctuate," the prime minister noted, speaking about the macro forecast, on which the draft state budget for 2023 approved by the government on the eve is built.
"What it will be like at the end of the year is almost impossible to predict. But for the calculations, a linear growth of this exchange rate was taken, and it will be in the range, I won’t name the psychological barrier – UAH 49/$1, let’s put it this way," the prime minister said.
He confirmed that formally, the documents indicate the exchange rate at the end of 2023 at the level of UAH 50/$1.
"But I will say again that this is the estimated dollar exchange rate, which we calculated in the conditions in which we live now," Shmyhal explained.
The head of government also noted that the Ministry of Finance and the NBU agreed on a monthly ceiling for direct financing of the budget deficit by the National Bank through war bonds in the amount of UAH 30 billion, and it will be observed in the next six months.
As reported, the National Bank devalued the official hryvnia exchange rate by 25% from July 21, to UAH 36.57/$1. The government expects inflation to reach 30% this year and next year.