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Consensus forecast for Ukraine's economic growth downgraded to 3.4% in 2021, and 3.6% in 2022 – Economy Ministry
(The title has been changed, text after paragraph four has been added)
KYIV. Dec 6 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 3.4% instead of 4.1% expected in April, and economic growth in 2022 is projected at 3.6% instead of 3.7%, such a consensus forecast was posted by the Ministry of Economy on its website.
"Experts expect GDP growth: in 2021 at the level of 3.4%, in contrast to the previously forecasted 4.1%, in 2022 – by 3.6%, in contrast to 3.7%, respectively," the ministry said in the consensus forecast.
As explained in the document, the revision of the indicators is mainly due to the slowdown in investment growth.
In 2023-2024 economic growth will be 3.4% and 4%, respectively, according to the consensus assessment of experts.
The consensus estimate of inflation in 2021 was 9.4%, in 2022 – 8%, while by the end of this year experts expect inflation at 10.6%, by the end of next – 6.5%. The unemployment rate is expected by experts to be 9.4% in 2021 and 9% in 2022.
The hryvnia exchange rate, according to the consensus estimate, in 2021 will be UAH 24.4/$1, by the end of the year – UAH 27.5/$1.
According to the consensus forecast, the growth of Ukrainian exports in 2021 was 0.3% with an increase in imports by 10%, in 2022 – by 4.5% and 6.7%, respectively.
At the same time, the consensus estimate of agricultural growth will be 7.4% this year and 3% next year, industry – 2.1% and 2.8%, respectively.
The experts also predict an outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine in 2021 at $ 4.5 billion or 2.4% of GDP, in 2022 the outflow of FDI will amount to $ 3.8 billion or 1.8% of GDP.
The deficit of the consolidated budget in 2021 will amount to 3.9% or UAH 199.8 billion, while in April 4.9% of GDP or UAH 223.5 billion.
The experts have changed the expectations of the current account deficit in 2021 – it will be 0.5% of GDP instead of 1% of GDP, as predicted in April.
The ministry noted that forecasts for 2021 and further are still influenced by the uncertainty of future development. If in the previous forecast the main role was played by the factor of overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and in the world, nowadays, the duration and complexity of the post-COVID recovery against the background of unpredicted price peaks or changes in the world markets (electricity, food and others) are added. Therefore, experts are rather cautious about their assessments, the Ministry of Economy emphasized.
The consensus forecast is the average value of the main forecast indicators of the economic development of Ukraine, which are calculated as the median based on the expert assessments of the survey participants.
