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Concorde Capital analyst admits worsening of situation in economy in 2023
KYIV. Sept 22 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The negative dynamics of the economy is still softer than the NBU expected, but the experience of 2014-2015 and the prolongation of the war allow us to assume that the situation may worsen in the future, Oleksandr Paraschiy, the head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital investment company, believes.
"Our economy fell by only 37% in the second quarter, which is better than the forecasts given by the NBU: they expected 39%. But this does not mean that the economy is behaving better than expected, it may mean that the worst is yet to come," he said at an online discussion organized by CASE.
"Now we must understand that the new wave of mobilization that has begun in Russia, unfortunately, does not allow us to say that this war will end in six months or even a year, the situation will remain difficult in the economy. The main question remains whether our state will withstand this strike," the analyst added.
Commenting on the economic downturn that has already taken place, Paraschiy singled out several of its main factors. In particular, he pointed to a decrease in the population by 7 million, or by 19%, which, together with a decrease in the income of the population by 14-15%, led to a drop in domestic demand by 30-35%.
In addition, the blocking of ports, through which 60% of exports passed, had a great negative impact. According to him, this cut off 15% of GDP.
Paraschiy also noted that one of the very important negative consequences of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the territory of Ukraine was the almost complete halt of all investments.