Businesses in Oct worsen assessment of prospects, but keep it above neutral level – NBU

KYIV. Nov 1 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) Business Activity Expectations Index fell to 51.4 in October from 53.1 in September, but remained above neutral, according to a central bank survey of enterprises.

"In October, businesses downgraded their positive views about their economic outlook … While robust consumer demand and investment activity continued to have a positive effect on respondents’ expectations, higher energy prices, an increase in COVID-19 cases, and stricter quarantine restrictions imposed in Ukraine and globally weakened companies’ positive views," the NBU said on its website.

"Trading companies continued to express the most optimistic views about their performance outlook, as the sector’s index moved to 52.2 in October, down from 56.1 in September. Respondents somewhat downgraded their positive expectations of trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale," it said.

"Services companies also remained upbeat about their performance outlook, the sector’s index being 51.3 in October, down from 51.8 in September. Respondents continued to expect an increase in the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and the amount of services that are being provided," the NBU said.

"Construction companies had the most restrained expectations of their performance outlook, the sector’s index being 50.2 in October, down from 51.6 in September. Construction companies upgraded their expectations of construction work done and the number of new orders. Meanwhile, with very strong expectations of a rise in supplier prices and the cost of contractor services, respondents reported more restrained intentions to purchase more raw materials and supplies," according to the document.

"Industrial companies have been upbeat about their economic performance outlook for six months running, the sector’s index being 51.1 in October, down from 52.8 in September. Compared to the previous month, respondents reported more guarded expectations of an increase in the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, including export orders," the report says.

This survey was carried out from October 4 through October 23, 2021. A total of 341 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 44.9% are industrial companies, 30.2% companies in the services sector, 21.1% trading companies, and 3.8% construction companies; 35.5% of the respondents are large companies, 29.6% medium companies, and 34.9% small companies.