Belarusian GDP falls 5.2%, industry down 6.2% in 7M

MINSK. Aug 16 (Interfax) – Belarusian GDP fell 5.2% year-on-year in January-July 2022 to 104.6 billion Belarusian rubles, the national statistical committee Belstat said.

The GDP deflator was 116.8%.

GDP fell 4.2% year-on-year in H1 2022 and 3.4% in January-May. It fell 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2022 but grew 1.2% in January-February and 2.7% in January.

The government said last week that in the best case scenario, it will be able to ensure zero economic growth this year due to anticipated recovery dynamics in the second half of the year in the absence of new sanctions and other unforeseen shocks.

The International Monetary Fund expects Belarusian GDP to fall 6.4% this year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts it will drop 4%, the Eurasian Development Bank 6.5% and S&P Global Ratings sees it plummeting as much as 15% amid western sanctions.

GDP grew 2.3% in 2021 after falling 0.9% in 2020 and rising 1.2% in 2019.

Belstat said industrial output in Belarus fell 6.2% year-on-year in 7M 2022 to 95.2 billion rubles.

Output had grown 7.2% in January, 3.5% in January-February and 0.2% in Q1 2022, but it fell 2.5% in January-April, 4.2% in January-May and 5.2% in H1 2022.

Output in 7M 2022 grew in the extractive industry by 2.2% while in manufacturing it fell 7.1%. It fell 2.6%% in the supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water and air conditioning and fell 1.4% in water utilities.

Industry grew 6.5% in 2021 after falling 0.7% in 2020.

The government has targeted 5.3% growth in 2022.