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Bankers expect seasonal weakening of hryvnia in autumn to UAH 28/$1
KYIV. Sept 3 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The hryvnia exchange rate after strengthening in summer will weaken to UAH 28/$1 in the fall due to the revival of business and consumer activity, as well as the purchase of energy resources for the heating season, bankers interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine believe.
"In the fall, business activity traditionally revives after the summer lull, and a period of active preparation for the beginning of the heating season starts. The rise in world prices for energy and raw materials will also have an impact on the dollar exchange rate on the Ukrainian interbank market," the director of the treasury department at Idea Bank Yaroslav Kabin told the agency.
According to him, the exchange rate corridor in the fall will be within the range of UAH 27.0-27.5/$1 with a possible jump to the level of UAH 27.7/$1, and the average annual rate will be UAH 27.2-27.5/$1.
Anton Boldyrev, the director of the treasury and investment services department at Ukreximbank, also expects the hryvnia to return to the range of UAH 27.0-27.5/$1 in the fall.
"Seasonal adjustment within 3-5% relative to summer values is typical for the national currency. It was expected that increased pressure will occur during payments on external debt in the amount of $ 3 billion, which will take place in September and are the peak this year," he said.
At the same time, he said $ 2.7 billion received within the global allocation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will provide support during such a period.
The banker pointed out that the risks to economic and exchange rate stability remain the lack of progress in cooperation with the IMF, the correction of world prices for raw materials and metallurgical products, a significant deterioration in foreign trade conditions, the spread of new strains of the virus and, as a result, the introduction of restrictions and lockdowns in Ukraine and the world.
According to him, the realization of these risks will increase pressure on the exchange rate and bring it closer to the levels of the beginning of the year – to UAH 27.8-28.3/$1.
"Every year the dollar rate at the end of August begins to grow, this autumn will not be an exception. We expect the rate to rise to the level of UAH 27.20-27.25/$1," Yuriy Yefremov, the director of the treasury department at Accordbank, said.
According to him, the rate at the end of the year will be UAH 27.25-27.30/$1.
In turn, the head of the department of personal banking services of UkrSibbank, Ihor Levchenko, expects the dollar exchange rate in the fall in the range of UAH 27.2-27.7/$1.