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Asian Development Bank forecasts 2023 GDP growth in Azerbaijan of around 3.5%, 3.8% in 2024
BAKU. April 5 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Asian Development Bank forecasts 2023 GDP growth in Azerbaijan of 3.5%.
“We forecast modest GDP growth in 2023 for Azerbaijan of around 3.5%, which should speed up a bit to 3.8% in 2024. According to our estimates, the growth of industrial production in Azerbaijan in 2023 will reach 0.5%, and in 2024 – 1%,” the Asian Development Outlook 2023, published by the bank on Tuesday, said.
In the agro-industrial complex, production is expected to increase 3.8% in 2023 and 4% in 2024 through continued subsidies to farmers as well as loans on favorable terms.
According to ADB estimates, growth in construction in Azerbaijan in 2023-2024 will be 12% and 11%, respectively.
The service sector is projected to increase by 7% in 2023 and 7.5% in 2024, “and this growth will be ensured through the development of the retail trade, the transport sector, and the transit of Kazakhstani oil through the territory of Azerbaijan,” the report says.
“ADB predicts a slowdown in average annual inflation in Azerbaijan to 7% in 2023, compared to 13.9% in 2022, and to 6.5% in 2024. However, the growth of the minimum wage and pensions in the country starting at the beginning of 2023 can spur inflation,” the bank said.
According to ADB estimates, Azerbaijan’s state budget deficit will reach 2.1% of GDP this year and 2.2% of GDP next year.
Azerbaijan’s balance of payments surplus is expected to reach 32.2% of GDP in 2023 and 30.2% of GDP in 2024.
Exports are projected to grow at 0.2% this year, despite a lower average oil price. At the same time, according to the bank’s estimates, exports from Azerbaijan will decrease 2.9% next year. Azerbaijan’s foreign trade surplus will grow by 6.4% in 2023, but will decrease by 5.6% in 2024.
The Azerbaijani government predicts GDP growth at 2.7% in 2023, and 4.1% in 2024, and expects average annual inflation at 6.9% and 4.5%, respectively.
Azerbaijan’s GDP grew by 4.6% in 2022.
